Take your best shot: Which SARS-CoV-2 vaccine should I get, if any?

Vaccine hesitancy continues to be a hurdle in the development of widespread immunity within the U.S. population as the COVID-19 pandemic enters its second year.

Researchers at the University of Cincinnati College of Medicine have developed a computerized decision analytic model to compare projected outcomes of three vaccine strategies: a patient opts for a messenger RNA vaccine, a patient decides to get an adenovirus vector vaccine or the patient simply forgoes a vaccine altogether.

Pfizer and Moderna produce mRNA vaccines while Johnson & Johnson manufacture an adenovirus vector vaccine. The decision analytic model uses a metric of quality adjusted life expectancy that accounts for both survival and quality of life as affected by hospitalization, COVID-19 disease and long-term post-infection complications on a patient, also commonly known as long-haul syndrome, explains Mark Eckman, MD, director and professor in the UC Division of General Internal Medicine and lead author of the study.

The model simulated the health outcomes for a 65-year-old and found the patient would gain a net of 7.4 days -- an extra week of life -- if the person received the mRNA vaccine versus opting to not vaccinate at all. Of the two strategies that include receiving a vaccine, both yield virtually equivalent results, with the mRNA vaccine demonstrating a minimal gain of roughly one day of life compared with the J&J vaccine, says Eckman.

The study findings are available online in the scholarly journal Medical Decision Making Policy & Practice. Other co-authors include Richard Lofgren, MD, President and CEO of UC Health, and faculty members in the UC Department of Internal Medicine: Margaret Powers-Fletcher, PhD, assistant professor; Jennifer Forrester, MD, associate professor; Carl Fichtenbaum, MD, professor and George Smulian, MD, professor.

"The important point is that both types of vaccines are better than no vaccine," says Eckman, also a primary care physician at UC Health, the UC affiliated health system that teaches and trains residents, medical students and other students in health care professions. "If we take a public health perspective by multiplying that gain over the vaccine eligible population, it results in a large net benefit for the nation."

Eckman says if the U.S. extends the per person benefit to the remaining unvaccinated and eligible population (individuals 12 years old and up) in the country, the aggregate benefit would be 3.92 million quality-adjusted life years for those receiving an mRNA vaccine. If the aggregate benefit were calculated using the J&J vaccine it would result in a net benefit of 3.38 million quality-adjusted life years.

"Since we did not have time to perform a clinical trial to study this question of vaccination, we developed a computer model to simulate outcomes of the strategies mentioned, using the most up-to-date and best data available," says Eckman. "Our analysis showed that both vaccines yield virtually equivalent results. The take-home message is that receiving either type of the vaccine is better than not getting vaccinated at all."

Eckman MH, Powers-Fletcher MV, Forrester JW, Fichtenbaum CJ, Lofgren R, Smulian AG.
Take Your Best Shot: Which SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Should I Get?
MDM Policy & Practice. July 2021. doi: 10.1177/23814683211031226

Most Popular Now

Lilly and Lycia Therapeutics enter into strategic …

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) and Lycia Therapeutics, Inc. today announced a multi-year research collaboration and licensing agreement focused on the discovery, devel...

SK bioscience and GSK start Phase 3 trial of adjuv…

SK bioscience (SK) and GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) today announced the initiation of a Phase 3 clinical study of SK's COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GBP510, in combination wit...

Blood vessels produce growth factor that promotes …

Blood vessels supply tumors with nutrients and, on the other hand, enable cancer cells to spread throughout the body. The settlement of circulating tumor cells in a dista...

New study examines 'Achilles heel' of cancer tumou…

Researchers at the University of British Columbia's faculty of medicine and BC Cancer Research Institute have uncovered a weakness in a key enzyme that solid tumour cance...

AI algorithm solves structural biology challenges

Determining the 3D shapes of biological molecules is one of the hardest problems in modern biology and medical discovery. Companies and research institutions often spend ...

A drug costing less than €2 a day helps in the tre…

Metoprolol, a drug widely used to treat cardiovascular disease, is beneficial when administered to COVID-19patients. This is the finding of a study by investigators at th...

No serious health effects linked to mRNA COVID-19 …

Federal and Kaiser Permanente researchers combing the health records of 6.2 million patients found no serious health effects that could be linked to the 2 mRNA COVID-19 v...

Rheumatoid arthritis treated with implanted cells …

With a goal of developing rheumatoid arthritis therapies with minimal side effects, researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis have genetically ...

Gut bacteria and flavonoid-rich foods are linked a…

Flavonoid-rich foods, including berries, apples, pears and wine, appear to have a positive effect on blood pressure levels, an association that is partially explained by ...

First-in-human clinical trial for a vaccine to tre…

The first patients have been enrolled in a phase 1 randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial to study a therapeutic vaccine for opioid use disorder developed by resear...

One in three Americans had COVID-19 by the end of …

A new study published in the journal Nature estimates that 103 million Americans, or 31 percent of the U.S. population, had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the end of 20...

Sandoz strengthens pipeline by entering into agree…

Sandoz, a Novartis division, today announced that it has entered into a commercialization agreement with Bio-Thera Solutions, Ltd. for biosimilar bevacizumab (BAT1706). B...