Undetected coronavirus variant was in at least 15 countries before its discovery

A highly contagious SARS-CoV-2 variant was unknowingly spreading for months in the United States by October 2020, according to a new study from researchers with The University of Texas at Austin COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. Scientists first discovered it in early December in the United Kingdom, where the highly contagious and more lethal variant is thought to have originated. The journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, which has published an early-release version of the study, provides evidence that the coronavirus variant B117 (501Y) had spread across the globe undetected for months when scientists discovered it.

"By the time we learned about the U.K. variant in December, it was already silently spreading across the globe," said Lauren Ancel Meyers, the director of the COVID-19 Modeling Consortium at The University of Texas at Austin and a professor of integrative biology. "We estimate that the B117 variant probably arrived in the U.S. by October of 2020, two months before we knew it existed."

Analyzing data from 15 countries, researchers estimated the chance that travelers from the U.K. introduced the variant into 15 countries between Sept. 22 and Dec. 7, 2020. They found that the virus variant had almost certainly arrived in all 15 countries by mid-November. In the U.S., the variant probably had arrived by mid-October.

"This study highlights the importance of laboratory surveillance," Meyers said. "Rapid and extensive sequencing of virus samples is critical for early detection and tracking of new variants of concern."

In conjunction with the paper's publication, consortium members developed a new tool that decision-makers anywhere in the United States can use in planning for genetic sequencing that helps to detect the presence of variants. To help the U.S. expand national surveillance of variants, the new online calculator indicates the number of virus samples that must be sequenced in order to detect new variants when they first emerge. For example, if the goal is to detect an emerging variant by the time it is causing 1 out of every 1,000 new COVID-19 infections, approximately 3,000 SARS-CoV-2 positive specimens per week need to be sequenced.

"Health officials are looking for better ways to manage the unpredictability of this virus and future variants," said Spencer Woody, a postdoctoral fellow at the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. "Our new calculator determines how many positive SARS-CoV-2 specimens must be sequenced to ensure that new threats are identified as soon as they start spreading."

He explained that the calculator has a second feature. "It also helps labs figure out how quickly they will detect new variants, given their current sequencing capacity."

"We created this tool to support federal, state and local health officials in building credible early warning systems for this and future pandemic threats," Meyers said.

Du Z, Wang L, Yang B, Ali ST, Tsang TK, Shan S, et al.
Risk for international importations of variant SARS-CoV-2 originating in the United Kingdom.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2021 doi: 10.3201/eid2705.210050

Most Popular Now

AZD7442 PROVENT Phase III prophylaxis trial met pr…

Positive high-level results from the PROVENT Phase III pre-exposure prophylaxis trial showed AstraZeneca's AZD7442 achieved a statistically significant reduction in the i...

Lilly and Lycia Therapeutics enter into strategic …

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) and Lycia Therapeutics, Inc. today announced a multi-year research collaboration and licensing agreement focused on the discovery, devel...

SK bioscience and GSK start Phase 3 trial of adjuv…

SK bioscience (SK) and GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK) today announced the initiation of a Phase 3 clinical study of SK's COVID-19 vaccine candidate, GBP510, in combination wit...

New study examines 'Achilles heel' of cancer tumou…

Researchers at the University of British Columbia's faculty of medicine and BC Cancer Research Institute have uncovered a weakness in a key enzyme that solid tumour cance...

AI algorithm solves structural biology challenges

Determining the 3D shapes of biological molecules is one of the hardest problems in modern biology and medical discovery. Companies and research institutions often spend ...

Blood vessels produce growth factor that promotes …

Blood vessels supply tumors with nutrients and, on the other hand, enable cancer cells to spread throughout the body. The settlement of circulating tumor cells in a dista...

A drug costing less than €2 a day helps in the tre…

Metoprolol, a drug widely used to treat cardiovascular disease, is beneficial when administered to COVID-19patients. This is the finding of a study by investigators at th...

Can a heartburn drug help doctors treat COVID-19?

In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, doctors in Wuhan noticed something surprising. Many of the elderly patients who survived the virus were poor: not exactly the ...

Rheumatoid arthritis treated with implanted cells …

With a goal of developing rheumatoid arthritis therapies with minimal side effects, researchers at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis have genetically ...

No serious health effects linked to mRNA COVID-19 …

Federal and Kaiser Permanente researchers combing the health records of 6.2 million patients found no serious health effects that could be linked to the 2 mRNA COVID-19 v...

Gut bacteria and flavonoid-rich foods are linked a…

Flavonoid-rich foods, including berries, apples, pears and wine, appear to have a positive effect on blood pressure levels, an association that is partially explained by ...

One in three Americans had COVID-19 by the end of …

A new study published in the journal Nature estimates that 103 million Americans, or 31 percent of the U.S. population, had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the end of 20...